what's the secret to making a good robot in robocode
So, yeah, I'm always thinking in terms of precise MEA, and thinking that I will never fire at a GF the enemy never visited. So I don't see how it's assuming anything about how much of the escape range they might actually cover - the MEA is effectively however much of the range they ever cover. There is the scaling, which I think only assumes they're not moving in a fixed pattern.
And you're right that that is a problem with a certain MEA approximation formula some people use with their GuessFactors. :-)