Effectiveness
My danger doesn't cover an area, though I tried that quite a bit recently and was disappointed I couldn't make it work better. For each angle in my log, I have danger of: weight * power(some base, -abs(angle diff) / bandwidth), then I divide out the total weight. I originally normalized it for the sake of multi-wave surfing - otherwise, if you're weighting by inverse scan distance, one wave can easily dominate the danger calculation just because you've been hit by a more similar wave before.
(Ninja edit: bandwidth is proportional to precise intersection bot width.)
Hmm... I see. It seems to me that it's easier to factor the baseline hit probability in logically, when the danger calculations work in terms of estimated hit probability.
On the topic of the page this talk page is for... With regards to it not working as well as you would have liked when integrating over an area, I wonder if that might have been related to tuning of bandwidth that is applied before integrating over the area.
