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Fragment of a discussion from Talk:LiteRumble
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PBI is the difference between expected score and real score. The expected score is based on difference between ratings.

Zero difference is 50% expected score
-800 difference is 1 to 20 odds, which is 1/(20+1) or 4,76% expected score
-1600 difference is 1 to 20^2 odds or 0,25% expected score
-Infinite difference is 0% expected score
MN23:23, 30 May 2012