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I am thinking about implementation of hit rate time derivative metric against adaptive bots. What I see that at the beginning the circular gun is quite good against plenty of good and even top bots. But then it contaminates hit stats, i.e. adaptive bots are not hit by the circular gun anymore but other guns still have low but steadily improving hit rates.

Hit rates can be compared only among the last N tics, which would somewhat mitigates this. But it has no predictive power to see the gun which would be the best in the next round.

Interesting found! Maybe we could use knn to predict hit-rate in melee, just as bullet power is predicted in 1v1.

Take time, bots left and more into account, then maybe you can predict your hit-rate pretty well, and choose guns wisely.