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Nice work and congrats!
It's hard to guess how much the gun heat tracking would help, but to me it seems to have potential for a decent gain and thus seems worth trying. Even if it just lets you shield one more wave once in a while, that can be a big APS difference when you're holding opponents to so few points (as I'm sure you've noticed =) ).
Nice improvement indeed. In my opinion, gun heat tracking and assuming they shot as soon as possible will gain you approx the same amount of APS you got with this update, say 0.25. Not enough to threaten #3 yet, but surely a noticable jump. I think that the "improved estimated wave" can safely be regarded as "true wave", but that is something for you to test and decide. Note that such an improved estimated wave not only helps your shielding, but also your regular surfing.