aggressive changes

Nice to see you're going for some pretty major changes in recent versions. =) Hoping to get away from the tweak train soon, myself.

Your changes sound vaguely along the lines of Talk:Wave_Surfing#The_Next_Level. My vision along those lines is more about predicting the firing situations presented to the enemy during the surfing options, then factoring the danger of those situations into the surf danger. For instance, if clockwise is moving towards the wall, the enemy's next bullet will have a precise MEA of 0.5 / distance 400 / normalized hit rate of 10, while counter-clockwise is a precise MEA of 0.9 / distance 550 / normalized hit rate of 8 for those firing attributes. At first glance, it seems like multiplying those right into the surf danger makes sense. But if you have multiple firing situations, the values should probably be added together before being multiplied in.

I tried implementing this a while back, with just the precise MEA / distance stuff, but I couldn't get any improvement out of it. It was also a HUGE pain trying to do this in such a way that preserves the "if we exceed max danger on the first wave, don't calculate the second wave" optimization, because you have to also account for the fact that different movement options will end sooner and have different numbers of firing situations to factor in.