gun tuning tangent

I disagree for a different reason... I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy, because I'd still classify the "single tick playing forward" methods as statistical targeting so long as the mechanism used each tick is still statistical. It adds another assumption to make each data point used more generally, but so do GuessFactors.

Really, what the technique provides, is denser data by making the assumption that on a given tick the opponant behaves in mostly-deterministic manner according to the attributes you're targeting based on. If your attributes are sufficiently complete, it should have a quicker effective learning rate.

I do think there is value in the "single tick playing forward" idea, but as-is it uses too much CPU, espescially if your targetting attributes are complex. I think one has to consider what it brings to the table and take advantage of it without making things so slow. My current view on the best approach, is that it would be doing larger number of ticks than one at a time (i.e. 10-tick-at-a-time iterative prediction).