Weird rumble scores
Fragment of a discussion from Talk:BeepBoop
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Have a look at 0.14 and 0.14a, the APS is 0.3 diff. And if only looking at the simplest bots to beat, 0.14a is having more 100% than 0.14, simply because it haven’t got enough battles.
99% going to 99.5% does happen, but they do move to 98.5% as well. It’s mostly balanced.
But the 100% part is onesided, causing it to constantly move down before reaching some “stable point”.
0-1 is balanced, but since you don’t get 0, it’s unbalanced then. Averaging on unbalanced distribution isn’t max likelihood, there exists better calc of APS to avoid score shifting, e.g. Using walson score lower bound for each bot instead of some 40 window moving average.
