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Fragment of a discussion from Talk:Nene
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With little or no data, it assumes worst case. k is always constant and with no data, x is always zero. It needs at least k waves to have any chance of estimating 100% hit rate.

The strategy works as long as the opponent does not use adaptive movement. Because if it does, spikes in movement profile are usually angles avoided the most.

MN03:01, 1 March 2013